Rep. Katie Porter is leaving Congress in January, but voters may want to see her back in leadership, a new independent poll suggests.
The survey, conducted by researchers from USC, Cal State Long Beach and Cal Poly Pomona, found that the Irvine Democrat was the favorite among 14% of respondents who were asked to pick between 13 people — declared and potential candidates for governor — if the election was held today.
State Sen. Brian Dahle, R-Bieber, who sought to unseat Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2022, came in second with 5.3% of the respondents choosing him.
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But the survey also indicated that support levels for all potential and declared candidates are low, meaning voters have not yet made up their minds for 2026. About half of the respondents, 49.7%, said they didn’t know who they will vote for.
Even though this year’s presidential elections are well underway, the race to succeed Newsom — who cannot seek re-election due to term limits — has already attracted a diverse array of Democrats, including state Sen. Toni Atkins, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, state schools chief Tony Thurmond, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former state controller Betty Yee.
Just 2.6% of respondents chose Villaraigosa and Yee each, while 2.1% picked Kounalakis. Only 1.3% of likely voters surveyed selected Atkins and Thurmond each.
Others whose names are being floated as potential contenders or have hinted at a possible run — aside from Dahle and Porter — include Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, California Attorney General Rob Bonta, real estate developer Rick Caruso, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, former candidate for state controller Lanhee Chen and political commentator Steve Hilton.
The survey of 1,685 likely voters — conducted from Sept. 12-25 across the state — has a 2.4% margin of error.
“The 2026 governor’s race is wide open and anyone could win,” said Christian Grose, a political science professor at USC and the lead researcher of the survey.
Porter, Grose said, may currently be voters’ top pick due to high statewide name recognition after her U.S. Senate primary run. Porter lost in the primary earlier this year after opting to vie for the open U.S. Senate seat rather than for re-election.
Porter on Monday did not directly address whether she is mulling a run for governor, instead, saying in a statement that she’s “grateful that Californians recognize my leadership and accomplishments.”
“In my time in Congress, I’ve stood up to special interests and shown that government can deliver for families by doing things differently,” Porter said. “I’m grateful that Californians recognize … that we need fresh voices in our politics who are not afraid to call out nonsense — whether it’s coming from Republicans or Democrats. Our next governor needs to be laser-focused on solving Californians’ biggest challenges, most of all cost of living.”
The three-term congresswoman has said she will resume teaching at UC Irvine School of Law next year after the end of her congressional term. In an interview earlier this year, Porter said she will teach courses on bankruptcy, consumer law, secured credit and legislation.
Porter has also been helping fundraise for Democratic candidates across the country after her primary election loss.
In addition to questions about the California governor’s race, the survey asked likely voters questions about whether they would support Newsom in the future were he not term-limited and about the presidential race, the vice presidential candidates and several ballot propositions.
More than half (56.5%) of surveyed likely voters said they plan to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on the Democratic presidential ticket while 33.7% said they will choose former President Donald Trump and Ohio Sen. JD Vance.
However, 53% of surveyed likely voters said they would “definitely not” or “might not” vote for Newsom if he were allowed to run again for governor and 47% said they would “definitely” or “might” vote for him.
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